The Power of Goals

The Name Game.

Sports analytics, not just football (or soccer) has always had a problem when naming their metrics (see what I mean).Corsi, TSR, Pythagorean and expected goals may work fine in a closed environment, but try sticking those terms into the mainstream and ...

A Non Shot Addition to the xG Family

Shot based expected goals models can tell us a lot about a match by extending the sample size from around three for actual goals to well into double figures for goal attempts.But they are event based descriptions of a match and don't always tell the wh...

Quantifying Passing Contribution.

Passing completion models have seeped into the public arena over the last couple of months, mimicking the methodology used in expected goals models.Historical data is used to estimate the likelihood that a goal is scored by an average finisher based pr...

Are Teams More Vulnerable After Scoring?

One of the joys from the "pencil and paper" age of football analytics was spending days collecting data to disprove a well known bedrock fact from football's rich traditional history.2-0 = dangerous lead has been a "laugh out loud" moment for those who...

xG Tables

There's been a lot of interest on Twitter in deriving tables from expected goals generated in matches that have already been played out.Average expected points/goals/ are a useful, but inevitably flawed way to express over or under performance in reali...